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weasel
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Joined: 13 Jan 2007
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Location: Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
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 Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 10:30 pm Post subject: Paper-Gamer.com presents: Talking Crap - Episode 17
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Paper-Gamer.com presents:
Talking Crap!
A magical podcast
Episode 17 - PTQ Austin 2009
Talking crap is a podcast starring Levi "Thinks-he-owns-the-place" Hinz, and Cameron "Controversial" Veigel, bringing you opinions and insights you can happily ignore, or pass on to your children's children.
Could be anything...could even be a boat!
(Right click, Save As.)
In this episode:
* PTQ Austin!
- Our results
- The metagame
- The Top 8
- Effects of the PTQ
* Zendikar and Planechase
* Firestarter question
Credits:
Starring: Levi Hinz & Cameron Veigel
Recording Date: Monday 24th August, 2009
Title and end song: Dropkick Murphys - I'm Shipping Up to Boston
Running time: Approx 44 Minutes
File size: 20.3MB
Unofficial Rating: PG. Mild coarse language.
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Last edited by weasel on Sat Apr 10, 2010 1:04 am; edited 1 time in total |
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trevor_spartacus
Joined: 30 Aug 2009
Posts: 1
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| Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 11:18 pm Post subject:
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Hey guys. New to the forums and just thought I might check out this podcast. Pretty fun to listen to, guess now I'm gonna have to go back and listen to the first dozen or something! Thanks!
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welease_woger
We have first names!
Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Posts: 535
Location: Brisbane
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 1:12 am Post subject:
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as to john tongs Q.... i belive playing the game is mainly about luck of the draw. but at the same time a skilled player can dig them selves out of most situations.
but then again to play the game well it is mostly about moneyzzzzz
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"I only drink the blood of my enemies! ...... That, and the occasional strawberry yoohoo, and sometimes sarsparilla...."
my EDH general is Sliver Legion |
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AanAllein
Dave Who?
Joined: 25 Jan 2007
Posts: 4383
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 6:44 am Post subject:
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| welease_woger wrote: | as to john tongs Q.... i belive playing the game is mainly about luck of the draw. but at the same time a skilled player can dig them selves out of most situations.
but then again to play the game well it is mostly about moneyzzzzz |
i disagree with all of the above statements!
i dunno, a small percentage of games are decided almost entirely by luck, and then there are other games where you can only steal a win when you're a lot better than your opponent - i know i've won against people who have on-the-board kills against me before, for example. but ultimately, when you include things like deck choice, mulligan decisions etc skill plays a far larger part than any other factor, including luck.
everyone blames losses on luck every now and again - and sometimes that is legitimate - but luck is a minor factor compared to skill. otherwise why would pros perform consistently well? |
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71dion
Joined: 26 Feb 2007
Posts: 1672
Location: Sunny Gold Coast
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:27 am Post subject:
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Loved your recap of the PTQ..... my game against Levi was fairly predictable, very sad on my end ( but I get that for playing an ugly ramp deck ). Lachlan's game against Cam was very funny, though as is usual, Lachlan played somewhat horribly ( overextending and not using his Garruk to make tokens ), and then when Cam locked him out, I wondered how long it take for him to figure out he was stuffed... he figured it out and then still played a few more turns before scooping ( something he probably won't do as he gets older and better.... ). We had a decent feel on the probable metagame ( lots of blightning and Jund decks ) which allowed him to beat a few good players with Teegs and Oversouls....
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Only wish I had more time to play..... seeing the PTQ was my last tourney....  |
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badlittlemonkey
Monkey Magic
Joined: 22 Jan 2007
Posts: 2769
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:51 am Post subject:
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I agree with Dave.
I know after the Brisbane GP when I was playign Horribly I thought Lorwyn was a luck based format, then it clicked and even the games I lost I knew why I lost and it wasn't "oh he drew the cardz"
Every now and then you get that game where it all seems to go against you but I would say only about 10% luck 90% skill.
A lot of the times when I though luck decided the contest was because I didn't know any better. |
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mindfire
Joined: 08 Apr 2007
Posts: 1028
Location: Brisbane, Queensland
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 1:05 pm Post subject:
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| badlittlemonkey wrote: | | I would say only about 10% luck 90% skill |
I think that everyone is actually saying the say thing - including welease_woger, because the metirc of luck vs skill relative.
If you have low skill, then it is all about luck, because 90% of nothing is still nothing, and all that is left is the 10% luck. Of course, this does not apply to most (but not all) of the people on this particular forums.
In other forums, your mileage will vary. |
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jmdwinter
Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1846
Location: Mount Ommaney
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 6:45 pm Post subject:
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| AanAllein wrote: | | everyone blames losses on luck every now and again - and sometimes that is legitimate - but luck is a minor factor compared to skill. otherwise why would pros perform consistently well? |
This statement is true. The problem, in my book, is that when you get players of similar play skill then luck becomes a huge factor. Eg: A game between Levi and Cameron with equally matched decks becomes a competition to see who draws the most relevant cards as opposed to who has the slight upper hand in play skill.
If Roger Federer plays Rafael Nadal on grass and narrowly wins, it can be said that Roger is slightly better than Rafa. (on grass  )
If Jon Finkel plays Kai Budde (at magic ) and Jon narrowly defeats Kai does that then mean Jon is slightly better at magic than Kai? I'd say they'd have to play 100 games of magic to eliminate the luck variables.
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EDH General(s): 1.(lost)Sen Triplets(lost)
2.Sliver Overlord
3.Tsabo Tavoc
4.Seshiro the Anointed
5.Lord of Tresserhorn
| AanAllein wrote: | | we are far too awesome to lose challenges! |
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archelon
Voice of Reason
Joined: 22 Feb 2007
Posts: 2859
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:00 pm Post subject:
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| jmdwinter wrote: | | AanAllein wrote: | | everyone blames losses on luck every now and again - and sometimes that is legitimate - but luck is a minor factor compared to skill. otherwise why would pros perform consistently well? |
This statement is true. The problem, in my book, is that when you get players of similar play skill then luck becomes a huge factor. Eg: A game between Levi and Cameron with equally matched decks becomes a competition to see who draws the most relevant cards as opposed to who has the slight upper hand in play skill. |
My money's on levi, but thanks for the confidence. |
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AanAllein
Dave Who?
Joined: 25 Jan 2007
Posts: 4383
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:03 pm Post subject:
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| jmdwinter wrote: | | AanAllein wrote: | | everyone blames losses on luck every now and again - and sometimes that is legitimate - but luck is a minor factor compared to skill. otherwise why would pros perform consistently well? |
This statement is true. The problem, in my book, is that when you get players of similar play skill then luck becomes a huge factor. Eg: A game between Levi and Cameron with equally matched decks becomes a competition to see who draws the most relevant cards as opposed to who has the slight upper hand in play skill.
If Roger Federer plays Rafael Nadal on grass and narrowly wins, it can be said that Roger is slightly better than Rafa. (on grass )
If Jon Finkel plays Kai Budde (at magic ) and Jon narrowly defeats Kai does that then mean Jon is slightly better at magic than Kai? I'd say they'd have to play 100 games of magic to eliminate the luck variables. |
i think 100 games is an overestimate - there are so many minor misplays you can make in games that only matter if your opponent is very good - but i do agree with your larger point. i know i can remember playing against basam and thinking "man, a slightly weaker player and i could trick them into doing this or *this*" but couldn't get him to do it. i think once you really have very closely matched players skill-wise though, mental games play a much larger part - if you can get them off their game for just one turn through bluffing or whatever, it can make the difference.
also, while luck does play a large part in one-on-one games between players of equal skill, i don't know if i agree that it plays a huge part once you factor in how they got there. 75 card mirror? sure. but if they've chosen different decks, or even different sideboard plans, there's a lot of skill involved there before they even sit down. ditto for draft, where subtle decisions can make the difference in very close matchups - siding in odd cards, etc |
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weasel
Site Admin
Joined: 13 Jan 2007
Posts: 8545
Location: Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:10 pm Post subject:
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| archelon wrote: | | jmdwinter wrote: | | AanAllein wrote: | | everyone blames losses on luck every now and again - and sometimes that is legitimate - but luck is a minor factor compared to skill. otherwise why would pros perform consistently well? |
This statement is true. The problem, in my book, is that when you get players of similar play skill then luck becomes a huge factor. Eg: A game between Levi and Cameron with equally matched decks becomes a competition to see who draws the most relevant cards as opposed to who has the slight upper hand in play skill. |
My money's on levi, but thanks for the confidence. |
Does that nats trophy still have its shine?
_________________
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Tell all your friends!
You make the community.
Check out Talking Crap - The Podcast!
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jmdwinter
Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 1846
Location: Mount Ommaney
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:13 pm Post subject:
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| AanAllein wrote: |
also, while luck does play a large part in one-on-one games between players of equal skill, i don't know if i agree that it plays a huge part once you factor in how they got there. 75 card mirror? sure. but if they've chosen different decks, or even different sideboard plans, there's a lot of skill involved there before they even sit down. ditto for draft, where subtle decisions can make the difference in very close matchups - siding in odd cards, etc |
For me, deck design and choice of deck is the most interesting part of competitive magic. That is why I admire Olivier Ruel. My favourite 'pro deck choice' was his "owling mine" deck that smashed a mainly control based field to smithereens in some big tourney a while back. He did a similar trick with Time Sieve at French Nationals I believe. Magic is a complex game that requires more than just 'play skill'. Does knowledge of all possible playable cards in the format count as play skill for example?
_________________
EDH General(s): 1.(lost)Sen Triplets(lost)
2.Sliver Overlord
3.Tsabo Tavoc
4.Seshiro the Anointed
5.Lord of Tresserhorn
| AanAllein wrote: | | we are far too awesome to lose challenges! |
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arifuller
Joined: 25 Jun 2009
Posts: 210
Location: Herston
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 8:36 pm Post subject:
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how much of anything is luck, and how much is skill?
upon returning to magic recently after a few years I have since noticed that question (is it luck or is it skill?) pop up in my mind quite often...
but it is not unlike any other pursuit, and I believe a comparison via analogy sheds light on the subject. Take sport for instance, there is a great deal of luck involved, as we watch sports people run around and experience fluctuations in fortune during the course of a game. But these are people who are extremely highly trained, and are more able to deal with these fluctuations of 'luck'... i.e. the ref makes a bad call, the ball bounces awkwardly, the player stumbles, the cyclist must avoid an unexpected obstacle, a player is recovering from a cold, etc.
Learning, and the improvement through discipline, would therefore minimise the impact that luck would have on any undertaking. Thus somebody who has played a game, or practiced whatever it is they are doing, would be able to predict outcomes with greater accuracy, be more flexible in reacting to unforeseen circumstances, and generally more confident in decisions that must be made.
I very much enjoy watching better players play magic, watching them deal with what the stack of cards will provide next in relation to the game situation. Sure there's luck if you want to use that word, but there's mostly skill.
Tykhe (Fortune) and Nemesis (Equal Distribution) teach only greater learning, perseverance and discipline. And those things are their own reward.
p.s. loved the podcast by the way!! |
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AanAllein
Dave Who?
Joined: 25 Jan 2007
Posts: 4383
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 10:02 pm Post subject:
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| jmdwinter wrote: | | AanAllein wrote: |
also, while luck does play a large part in one-on-one games between players of equal skill, i don't know if i agree that it plays a huge part once you factor in how they got there. 75 card mirror? sure. but if they've chosen different decks, or even different sideboard plans, there's a lot of skill involved there before they even sit down. ditto for draft, where subtle decisions can make the difference in very close matchups - siding in odd cards, etc |
For me, deck design and choice of deck is the most interesting part of competitive magic. That is why I admire Olivier Ruel. My favourite 'pro deck choice' was his "owling mine" deck that smashed a mainly control based field to smithereens in some big tourney a while back. He did a similar trick with Time Sieve at French Nationals I believe. Magic is a complex game that requires more than just 'play skill'. Does knowledge of all possible playable cards in the format count as play skill for example? |
well, it's obviously "skill" and not "luck," so yeah |
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archelon
Voice of Reason
Joined: 22 Feb 2007
Posts: 2859
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| Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:51 am Post subject:
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| weasel wrote: | | archelon wrote: | | jmdwinter wrote: | | AanAllein wrote: | | everyone blames losses on luck every now and again - and sometimes that is legitimate - but luck is a minor factor compared to skill. otherwise why would pros perform consistently well? |
This statement is true. The problem, in my book, is that when you get players of similar play skill then luck becomes a huge factor. Eg: A game between Levi and Cameron with equally matched decks becomes a competition to see who draws the most relevant cards as opposed to who has the slight upper hand in play skill. |
My money's on levi, but thanks for the confidence. |
Does that nats trophy still have its shine? |
Yeah. And if I had a time machine I would beat you over and over :p |
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Agentis
Joined: 14 Jul 2007
Posts: 1059
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| Posted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 8:46 pm Post subject:
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| Yeah it was double vanquisher ;_; |
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stone
Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 248
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| Posted: Wed Feb 03, 2010 11:45 am Post subject:
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In response to the luck v skill posts (as I'm just about to listen to the podcast) though I agree largely with what everyone has said prior - I don't think it's about working out what % luck v what % skill.
It's about using skill to minimise the impact of luck. The luck/random element is a critical part of games appeal and can't be entirely removed. It's what keeps magic fun and interesting.
My experience has been that improving, learning and having fun is about minimising the impact of luck. This can be done in so many areas: Deck construction, sideboarding, format knowledge, play skill, metagame knowledge, understanding matchups, general MTG theory (card advantage, tempo, phil of fire, etc).
Minimising the random element (learning) is hard work and improvement can only be measured over time. Part of the satisfaction of playing magic is that there's always more to learn. Even when you think you're playing really well or think you have a game thoroughly under control luck plays a part.
I have yet to lose a game where I have thought luck was the only factor. Even when my opponent combos or locks me out on T0/1 I think 'what could I have done to change this and would that be sensible?' Sometimes that's play decisions or choices, even tiny ones I missed that might take another player to point out (like tiny %s that transmuting muddles in my last game of the ext ptq for irrelevant cards would've made). Often it's an increased understanding of the format and questions about my decklist/construction and board plans/decisions (dredge/zoo seems good, how do I board for that matchup/threat). Sometimes what you learn wouldn't make you change anything but if you can apply it next time around you'll still be better for it.
I wouldn't have kept my interest in magic so long if it wasn't for the luck in the game. I wouldn't improve my game if I didn't try to mitigate that luck. It's great that there's always challenges and that improvement can only be measured over long periods and different formats - after all, sometimes everyone does get unlucky. It's a great part of the game. 
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carso87
Vote first, ask questions later
Joined: 04 Feb 2009
Posts: 863
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| Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 7:35 pm Post subject:
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When can we expect the next one of these?  . |
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Raider
Joined: 20 Nov 2009
Posts: 427
Location: Canberra
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| Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 9:15 pm Post subject:
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| carso87 wrote: | | When can we expect the next one of these? . |
They are waiting to tell the story about how they went 1-2 in San Diego!!
By that I mean 1st and 2nd.
Not that they both started with a 1-2 record |
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carso87
Vote first, ask questions later
Joined: 04 Feb 2009
Posts: 863
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| Posted: Thu Feb 11, 2010 9:52 am Post subject:
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| Raider wrote: | | carso87 wrote: | | When can we expect the next one of these? . |
They are waiting to tell the story about how they went 1-2 in San Diego!!
By that I mean 1st and 2nd.
Not that they both started with a 1-2 record |
Pretty sure I'm gonna be in trouble with the mrs if that happens as I will be following the coverage all weekend. |
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weasel
Site Admin
Joined: 13 Jan 2007
Posts: 8545
Location: Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
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| Posted: Thu Feb 11, 2010 10:06 am Post subject:
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Get ready for some trouble then!
Yeah its hard to do any more podcasts, now that Cam has to take a plane home from FNM 
We've talked about doing them remotely etc, but not sure how well that's going to work. We'll try it sometime though.
It might end up that we move on to some other project along the same lines.
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Tell all your friends!
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Check out Talking Crap - The Podcast!
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Raider
Joined: 20 Nov 2009
Posts: 427
Location: Canberra
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| Posted: Thu Feb 11, 2010 4:29 pm Post subject:
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| weasel wrote: | Get ready for some trouble then!
Yeah its hard to do any more podcasts, now that Cam has to take a plane home from FNM
We've talked about doing them remotely etc, but not sure how well that's going to work. We'll try it sometime though.
It might end up that we move on to some other project along the same lines. |
You heard it here first - Its all Cameron's Fault! |
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weasel
Site Admin
Joined: 13 Jan 2007
Posts: 8545
Location: Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
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| Posted: Thu Feb 11, 2010 4:39 pm Post subject:
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No it was my fault, I pushed him away :ashamed:
_________________
Support Paper-Gamer.com
Tell all your friends!
You make the community.
Check out Talking Crap - The Podcast!
"Thieves are stupid, that's why they're thieves." -Ari |
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