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weasel
I haven't forgotten you, Mr. Squire.
Joined: 13 Jan 2007
Posts: 6372
Location: Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
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 Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 10:30 pm Post subject: Paper-Gamer.com presents: Talking Crap - Episode 17
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Paper-Gamer.com presents:
Talking Crap!
A magical podcast
Episode 17 - PTQ Austin 2009
Talking crap is a podcast starring Levi "Thinks-he-owns-the-place" Hinz, and Cameron "Controversial" Veigel, bringing you opinions and insights you can happily ignore, or pass on to your children's children.
Could be anything...could even be a boat!
(Right click, Save As.)
In this episode:
* PTQ Austin!
- Our results
- The metagame
- The Top 8
- Effects of the PTQ
* Zendikar and Planechase
* Firestarter question
Credits:
Starring: Levi Hinz & Cameron Veigel
Recording Date: Monday 24th August, 2009
Title and end song: Dropkick Murphys - I'm Shipping Up to Boston
Running time: Approx 44 Minutes
File size: 20.3MB
Unofficial Rating: PG. Mild coarse language.
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trevor_spartacus
Joined: 30 Aug 2009
Posts: 1
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| Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 11:18 pm Post subject:
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Hey guys. New to the forums and just thought I might check out this podcast. Pretty fun to listen to, guess now I'm gonna have to go back and listen to the first dozen or something! Thanks!
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welease_woger
Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Posts: 263
Location: Brisbane
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 1:12 am Post subject:
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as to john tongs Q.... i belive playing the game is mainly about luck of the draw. but at the same time a skilled player can dig them selves out of most situations.
but then again to play the game well it is mostly about moneyzzzzz
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"I only drink the blood of my enemies! ...... That, and the occasional strawberry yoohoo, and sometimes sarsparilla...."
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AanAllein
Fortune Thief
Joined: 25 Jan 2007
Posts: 2812
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 6:44 am Post subject:
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| welease_woger wrote: | as to john tongs Q.... i belive playing the game is mainly about luck of the draw. but at the same time a skilled player can dig them selves out of most situations.
but then again to play the game well it is mostly about moneyzzzzz |
i disagree with all of the above statements!
i dunno, a small percentage of games are decided almost entirely by luck, and then there are other games where you can only steal a win when you're a lot better than your opponent - i know i've won against people who have on-the-board kills against me before, for example. but ultimately, when you include things like deck choice, mulligan decisions etc skill plays a far larger part than any other factor, including luck.
everyone blames losses on luck every now and again - and sometimes that is legitimate - but luck is a minor factor compared to skill. otherwise why would pros perform consistently well? |
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71dion
My kid prob plays better Magic than me
Joined: 26 Feb 2007
Posts: 1175
Location: Sunny Gold Coast
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:27 am Post subject:
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Loved your recap of the PTQ..... my game against Levi was fairly predictable, very sad on my end ( but I get that for playing an ugly ramp deck ). Lachlan's game against Cam was very funny, though as is usual, Lachlan played somewhat horribly ( overextending and not using his Garruk to make tokens ), and then when Cam locked him out, I wondered how long it take for him to figure out he was stuffed... he figured it out and then still played a few more turns before scooping ( something he probably won't do as he gets older and better.... ). We had a decent feel on the probable metagame ( lots of blightning and Jund decks ) which allowed him to beat a few good players with Teegs and Oversouls....
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And my custom title has come true  ..... far too soon..... after my nine year old finished higher in the standings than me at the Austin PTQ....  ..... |
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badlittlemonkey
Lily
Joined: 22 Jan 2007
Posts: 2301
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:51 am Post subject:
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I agree with Dave.
I know after the Brisbane GP when I was playign Horribly I thought Lorwyn was a luck based format, then it clicked and even the games I lost I knew why I lost and it wasn't "oh he drew the cardz"
Every now and then you get that game where it all seems to go against you but I would say only about 10% luck 90% skill.
A lot of the times when I though luck decided the contest was because I didn't know any better. |
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mindfire
Salad-dweller
Joined: 08 Apr 2007
Posts: 1027
Location: Brisbane, Queensland
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 1:05 pm Post subject:
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| badlittlemonkey wrote: | | I would say only about 10% luck 90% skill |
I think that everyone is actually saying the say thing - including welease_woger, because the metirc of luck vs skill relative.
If you have low skill, then it is all about luck, because 90% of nothing is still nothing, and all that is left is the 10% luck. Of course, this does not apply to most (but not all) of the people on this particular forums.
In other forums, your mileage will vary.
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Im two sttopid to play magik - mabee ah shud stop whill arm ahid |
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jmdwinter
Warped
Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 980
Location: Mount Ommaney
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 6:45 pm Post subject:
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| AanAllein wrote: | | everyone blames losses on luck every now and again - and sometimes that is legitimate - but luck is a minor factor compared to skill. otherwise why would pros perform consistently well? |
This statement is true. The problem, in my book, is that when you get players of similar play skill then luck becomes a huge factor. Eg: A game between Levi and Cameron with equally matched decks becomes a competition to see who draws the most relevant cards as opposed to who has the slight upper hand in play skill.
If Roger Federer plays Rafael Nadal on grass and narrowly wins, it can be said that Roger is slightly better than Rafa. (on grass  )
If Jon Finkel plays Kai Budde (at magic ) and Jon narrowly defeats Kai does that then mean Jon is slightly better at magic than Kai? I'd say they'd have to play 100 games of magic to eliminate the luck variables.
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archelon
Maybe this is the joke...
Joined: 22 Feb 2007
Posts: 1438
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:00 pm Post subject:
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| jmdwinter wrote: | | AanAllein wrote: | | everyone blames losses on luck every now and again - and sometimes that is legitimate - but luck is a minor factor compared to skill. otherwise why would pros perform consistently well? |
This statement is true. The problem, in my book, is that when you get players of similar play skill then luck becomes a huge factor. Eg: A game between Levi and Cameron with equally matched decks becomes a competition to see who draws the most relevant cards as opposed to who has the slight upper hand in play skill. |
My money's on levi, but thanks for the confidence.
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This thread is hilarious...
"At least when Jund gets flooded it can topdeck Dragons and crazy 2-for-1 sales. What do you get? Just Kittens and toy soldiers..." |
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AanAllein
Fortune Thief
Joined: 25 Jan 2007
Posts: 2812
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:03 pm Post subject:
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| jmdwinter wrote: | | AanAllein wrote: | | everyone blames losses on luck every now and again - and sometimes that is legitimate - but luck is a minor factor compared to skill. otherwise why would pros perform consistently well? |
This statement is true. The problem, in my book, is that when you get players of similar play skill then luck becomes a huge factor. Eg: A game between Levi and Cameron with equally matched decks becomes a competition to see who draws the most relevant cards as opposed to who has the slight upper hand in play skill.
If Roger Federer plays Rafael Nadal on grass and narrowly wins, it can be said that Roger is slightly better than Rafa. (on grass )
If Jon Finkel plays Kai Budde (at magic ) and Jon narrowly defeats Kai does that then mean Jon is slightly better at magic than Kai? I'd say they'd have to play 100 games of magic to eliminate the luck variables. |
i think 100 games is an overestimate - there are so many minor misplays you can make in games that only matter if your opponent is very good - but i do agree with your larger point. i know i can remember playing against basam and thinking "man, a slightly weaker player and i could trick them into doing this or *this*" but couldn't get him to do it. i think once you really have very closely matched players skill-wise though, mental games play a much larger part - if you can get them off their game for just one turn through bluffing or whatever, it can make the difference.
also, while luck does play a large part in one-on-one games between players of equal skill, i don't know if i agree that it plays a huge part once you factor in how they got there. 75 card mirror? sure. but if they've chosen different decks, or even different sideboard plans, there's a lot of skill involved there before they even sit down. ditto for draft, where subtle decisions can make the difference in very close matchups - siding in odd cards, etc |
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weasel
I haven't forgotten you, Mr. Squire.
Joined: 13 Jan 2007
Posts: 6372
Location: Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:10 pm Post subject:
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| archelon wrote: | | jmdwinter wrote: | | AanAllein wrote: | | everyone blames losses on luck every now and again - and sometimes that is legitimate - but luck is a minor factor compared to skill. otherwise why would pros perform consistently well? |
This statement is true. The problem, in my book, is that when you get players of similar play skill then luck becomes a huge factor. Eg: A game between Levi and Cameron with equally matched decks becomes a competition to see who draws the most relevant cards as opposed to who has the slight upper hand in play skill. |
My money's on levi, but thanks for the confidence. |
Does that nats trophy still have its shine?
_________________
Support Paper-Gamer.com
Tell all your friends!
You make the community.
Check out Talking Crap - The Podcast!
"Thieves are stupid, that's why they're thieves." -Ari |
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jmdwinter
Warped
Joined: 15 Apr 2007
Posts: 980
Location: Mount Ommaney
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:13 pm Post subject:
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| AanAllein wrote: |
also, while luck does play a large part in one-on-one games between players of equal skill, i don't know if i agree that it plays a huge part once you factor in how they got there. 75 card mirror? sure. but if they've chosen different decks, or even different sideboard plans, there's a lot of skill involved there before they even sit down. ditto for draft, where subtle decisions can make the difference in very close matchups - siding in odd cards, etc |
For me, deck design and choice of deck is the most interesting part of competitive magic. That is why I admire Olivier Ruel. My favourite 'pro deck choice' was his "owling mine" deck that smashed a mainly control based field to smithereens in some big tourney a while back. He did a similar trick with Time Sieve at French Nationals I believe. Magic is a complex game that requires more than just 'play skill'. Does knowledge of all possible playable cards in the format count as play skill for example?
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arifuller
Joined: 25 Jun 2009
Posts: 177
Location: Herston
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 8:36 pm Post subject:
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how much of anything is luck, and how much is skill?
upon returning to magic recently after a few years I have since noticed that question (is it luck or is it skill?) pop up in my mind quite often...
but it is not unlike any other pursuit, and I believe a comparison via analogy sheds light on the subject. Take sport for instance, there is a great deal of luck involved, as we watch sports people run around and experience fluctuations in fortune during the course of a game. But these are people who are extremely highly trained, and are more able to deal with these fluctuations of 'luck'... i.e. the ref makes a bad call, the ball bounces awkwardly, the player stumbles, the cyclist must avoid an unexpected obstacle, a player is recovering from a cold, etc.
Learning, and the improvement through discipline, would therefore minimise the impact that luck would have on any undertaking. Thus somebody who has played a game, or practiced whatever it is they are doing, would be able to predict outcomes with greater accuracy, be more flexible in reacting to unforeseen circumstances, and generally more confident in decisions that must be made.
I very much enjoy watching better players play magic, watching them deal with what the stack of cards will provide next in relation to the game situation. Sure there's luck if you want to use that word, but there's mostly skill.
Tykhe (Fortune) and Nemesis (Equal Distribution) teach only greater learning, perseverance and discipline. And those things are their own reward.
p.s. loved the podcast by the way!! |
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AanAllein
Fortune Thief
Joined: 25 Jan 2007
Posts: 2812
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| Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 10:02 pm Post subject:
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| jmdwinter wrote: | | AanAllein wrote: |
also, while luck does play a large part in one-on-one games between players of equal skill, i don't know if i agree that it plays a huge part once you factor in how they got there. 75 card mirror? sure. but if they've chosen different decks, or even different sideboard plans, there's a lot of skill involved there before they even sit down. ditto for draft, where subtle decisions can make the difference in very close matchups - siding in odd cards, etc |
For me, deck design and choice of deck is the most interesting part of competitive magic. That is why I admire Olivier Ruel. My favourite 'pro deck choice' was his "owling mine" deck that smashed a mainly control based field to smithereens in some big tourney a while back. He did a similar trick with Time Sieve at French Nationals I believe. Magic is a complex game that requires more than just 'play skill'. Does knowledge of all possible playable cards in the format count as play skill for example? |
well, it's obviously "skill" and not "luck," so yeah |
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archelon
Maybe this is the joke...
Joined: 22 Feb 2007
Posts: 1438
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| Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:51 am Post subject:
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| weasel wrote: | | archelon wrote: | | jmdwinter wrote: | | AanAllein wrote: | | everyone blames losses on luck every now and again - and sometimes that is legitimate - but luck is a minor factor compared to skill. otherwise why would pros perform consistently well? |
This statement is true. The problem, in my book, is that when you get players of similar play skill then luck becomes a huge factor. Eg: A game between Levi and Cameron with equally matched decks becomes a competition to see who draws the most relevant cards as opposed to who has the slight upper hand in play skill. |
My money's on levi, but thanks for the confidence. |
Does that nats trophy still have its shine? |
Yeah. And if I had a time machine I would beat you over and over :p
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This thread is hilarious...
"At least when Jund gets flooded it can topdeck Dragons and crazy 2-for-1 sales. What do you get? Just Kittens and toy soldiers..." |
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